此網頁為2015年的香港大學民意研究計劃檔案網頁,不會再作更新。若需瀏覽最新資料,請到網址 http://hkupop.hku.hk
This is the archived webpage of HKU POP SITE of the year 2015 and no longer updated. For latest information, please visit http://hkupop.hku.hk.

調查方法返回

調查方法

民意研究計劃多年來不斷就公眾人物及組織進行評分調查,當中的十大政治團體評分的調查方法如下:
 

 該等調查現時每三個月進行一次,每次分為兩個階段。在第一階段,訪員會要求被訪者在沒有提示的情況下,被說出他們所認識的政團名稱,多少不拘,九九年六月前被訪者可說出多至五個團體的名字,九九年六月後更加增至十個。
 

 研究組會在這些未經提示下產生的名單中,篩選出最多被訪者提及的名字,進入第二階段評分調查。入選名單方面,九九年六月前共接受七個,九九年六月後則更加增至十二個。
 

 在第二階段的評分調查,訪員會要求被訪者就入選的政團以零至一百分進行個別評分,提示為零分代表絕對不支持,一百分代表絕對支持,五十分為一半半。統計分析後,最不為人知的政團將被拋出局,只餘下十大政團(九九年六月前只餘五大政團)。最後,若有政團的認知率不及50%,亦會被拋出局(或只留作參考)。政團的最後排名以平均支持率計。換言之,十大以外的政治團體,支持度可以很高或很低,但由於並非巿民最熟悉的政團,所以不在榜內。
 

 民意研究組用這種方法得出的排名,會確保名列前矛者既為人識,亦受支持。排名愈後,則表示有關人士或組織在支持度或認知度方面任缺其一,或兩大皆空。
 

 由二零零五年九月起,為了方便巿民更加掌握「十大」評分系列的方法和數據,研究組每次都同時公佈以下兩項附加參考資料:(1)在最後階段評分調查中,因認知率較低而跌出榜外的人物或團體所得評分,認知率低於50%者除外;(2)綜合過去12個月份調查結果的總結排名。總排名的計算方法是先按上榜次數,後按平均分數排名。換言之,上榜次數愈多、平均分愈高,總排名便會愈高。
 

 須要說明,由於香港沒有政黨法,政治團體的定義相當含糊,而該等團體亦經常消長更替,因此有關調查在提名階段經常出現一些不切實際的團體名稱。為免滲入主觀判斷,除了一些明顯地不存在或者已經解散的團體外,研究隊只會在提名階段後才核實入選團體是否屬於社會人士公認的政治團體。
 

 上述所有第一階段的提名調查及第二階段的評分調查皆屬電話問卷調查,由嚴格督導下的訪員進行訪問。
 

 所有調查的訪問對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民。
 

 2014年1月中起,電話號碼抽樣方法是先從通訊事務管理局之香港電訊服務號碼計劃獲取已分配予電訊商的電話字頭,然後以隨機方式從中產生號碼。最後,按照電腦撥打及過往調查記錄,剔除無效號碼成為最終樣本。
 

 2014年1月中或之前,電話號碼抽樣方法是從住宅電話簿中首先以隨機方法抽取「種籽」號碼,再以加一減一加二減二的方法產生另一組號碼,然後在混合後再過濾重覆號碼,再以隨機排列方式排次成為最後樣本。
 

 抽取住戶成員的方法是由訪員在成功接觸目標住戶後,用「即將出生日期」的方法由當時在家的成員抽取其中一人進行訪問。



Survey Method

In the past many years, POP has been conducting popularity ratings for a variety of political figures and groups. The research design of the top 10 political groups is explained as follows:

 
 

The surveys are at present conducted once every three months, in two different phases. In the first stage, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, all political groups that they could think of. They could name up to 5 groups before June 1999, and up to 10 groups after that date.

 
 

POP would then select from this list of unprompted nominees the most frequently cited names for the next stage survey. Before June 1999, 7 groups would be admitted. The quota was increased to 12 after June 1999.

 
 

During the second stage survey, respondents would be asked to rate each of the selected groups using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the least well-known groups would be dropped. Only the ten most well-known political groups remained. (Before June 1999, only the top five political groups remained.) Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate would also be dropped (or retained only for reference). The list would then be sorted according to support ratings. In other words, those political groups outside the top 10 may have very high or very low support ratings. They are not in the list because they are not the most well-known groups among the public.

 
 

Using this method, the POP Team is able to screen out the most popular legislators and political groups both in terms of popular recognition and support. Those who failed to reach the top must have failed in either or both aspects.

 
 

To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, starting from September 2005, the POP Team would also include the following two pieces of supplementary information in each related release: (1) The ratings of political figures or groups being dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months. The groups' overall rankings were first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. In other words, the more frequent the groups on top 10, and the higher their average ratings are, the higher their overall rankings are.

 
 

It should be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey.

 
 

All stage one naming surveys and stage two rating surveys mentioned are telephone surveys conducted by interviewers under close supervision.

 
 

Target population of these surveys are Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above.

 
 

Starting from mid-January 2014, telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

 
 

Before mid-January 2014, telephone numbers are first selected randomly from telephone directories as seed numbers. Another set of numbers is then generated by using the plus/minus one/two method. Duplicate numbers are then screened out, and the remaining numbers mixed in a random order to become the final sample.

 
 

Upon successful contact being made with a target household, one member of the household is selected among those present using the "next birthday" rule.